Daily Peace and Crisis Report

Compiled March 03, 2026, 08:02 AEDT

US-Israel War on Iran Enters Third Day, Region-Wide Escalation

The Middle East is experiencing its most severe military escalation in decades. The United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran — code-named "Operation Epic Fury" — beginning on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The strikes targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile programme, military leadership, and intelligence apparatus, and resulted in the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His death, confirmed by Iranian state media on Sunday, has sent shockwaves across the region and the world. (Al Jazeera, CNN)

US President Donald Trump told media outlets, including CNN, that he expects the conflict to last "four weeks." The Israeli ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, stated the operation would continue "as long as it takes" to ensure Iran does not acquire nuclear capabilities. However, analysts have questioned the strategic clarity of the campaign. Harlan Ullman, chairman of the Killowen Group, told Al Jazeera: "The [Trump] administration does not have a clear-cut strategy for what it is trying to do." A snap poll by the Washington Post found that 52% of Americans oppose the strikes, compared to 39% who support them. (Al Jazeera)

Iran has responded with retaliatory strikes against Israel and US military assets across the Gulf. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified that Iran is "not at war with regional countries" but with the United States, and that US military bases — even those in Gulf nations — remain legitimate targets. The US military announced it had destroyed all 11 Iranian naval vessels in the Gulf of Oman. Qatar's air force shot down two Iranian Su-24 fighter jets, seven ballistic missiles, and five drones. (Al Jazeera)

The conflict widened further on March 2 when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon. Lebanon's government responded by banning Hezbollah's military activities and ordering the Lebanese army to fast-track the group's disarmament. The UN Secretary-General warned the Security Council that the strikes risk triggering a wider, catastrophic conflict. The Security Council held an emergency meeting on February 28, with multiple members calling for urgent restraint and a return to diplomacy. (UN Press, The Guardian)

Casualties Across the Region (as of March 2, 2026)

The Iranian Red Crescent Society reports at least 555 people killed in Iran, including approximately 180 children in a strike on a girls' elementary school in the city of Minab. Several hospitals have been damaged or evacuated, including the Aboozar Children's Hospital in Ahvaz. In Israel, at least 10 people have been killed and over 200 injured, with nine fatalities occurring when an Iranian ballistic missile struck a bomb shelter in Beit Shemesh. Four US service members have been killed in action, with 18 seriously wounded. Lebanon has recorded 31 killed and 149 injured from Israeli strikes. The UAE has reported 3 killed and 58 injured, Kuwait 1 killed and 32 injured, Bahrain 1 killed and 4 injured, Iraq 2 killed and 5 wounded, and Oman 1 killed and 5 injured. (Al Jazeera)

Gaza: All Crossings Sealed as Humanitarian Crisis Deepens

Israel's decision to close all crossings into the Gaza Strip in the wake of the Iran strikes has triggered an immediate and severe humanitarian emergency. UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric confirmed on March 2 that all crossings have been sealed, halting humanitarian aid deliveries, staff rotations, and medical evacuations. UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini described the closure as "a new chokehold on Gaza," warning that the UN and its partners had worked hard to maintain a "sustained and predictable flow of supplies despite continuing restrictions, but that cannot continue under a full blockade." (UN News)

The closure compounds an already fragile situation. According to the latest OCHA Situation Report (No. 69, covering the period to February 25, 2026), only 260 of 619 health service points in Gaza — 42% — are functioning, and 90% of those only partially. All hospitals remain entirely dependent on backup generators, with critical shortages of spare parts, power supply systems, and medical equipment. Fuel shortages are forcing the rationing of essential services, with bakeries, hospitals, and desalination plants all affected. Solid waste collection has been suspended. (OCHA)

The cumulative death toll since the war began on October 7, 2023 stands at over 73,188 Palestinians killed, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health and OCHA. Even since the ceasefire came into effect on October 10, 2025, 618 Palestinians have been killed and 1,663 injured, with 7 killed and 33 injured in the most recent reporting period alone. The March 1 deadline for 37 NGOs to leave Palestine passed, with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) publicly committing to remain and provide assistance. (OCHA Situation Report No. 69, MSF)

In the occupied West Bank, Israeli settler violence continues to escalate. Two Palestinian brothers were shot and killed by Israeli settlers on March 2, bringing the number of Palestinians killed by settler violence in 2026 to three. Israeli forces have also closed many West Bank checkpoints, restricting Palestinian access to livelihoods, basic services, and humanitarian operations. (New York Times)

Ukraine-Russia War: Peace Talks Persist Amid Ongoing Violence

The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year, continues on both the diplomatic and military fronts. A new round of US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, scheduled for this week, has not been cancelled despite the upheaval caused by the Iran conflict. The Kremlin stated on March 2 that it is in Russia's own interests to continue talks. However, significant obstacles remain: Russia is demanding Ukraine cede the Donetsk region, a condition Kyiv has firmly rejected. Ukraine is seeking iron-clad security guarantees from the US and European allies. (Al-Monitor, The Guardian)

Scepticism about the talks runs deep in Ukraine. A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published on March 2 found that 70% of Ukrainians do not believe the negotiations will result in lasting peace. On the battlefield, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukraine captured more territory in February 2026 than Russia was able to occupy in the same period. President Zelensky had earlier claimed that Ukrainian forces liberated approximately 300 square kilometres in a counteroffensive operation. Russia, meanwhile, struck a passenger train in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with a drone on March 2, killing one person and injuring ten. (Kyiv Independent)

Russian Perspective: The Kremlin has framed the ongoing talks as serving Russia's strategic interests, while continuing to insist on territorial concessions from Ukraine. Russia has offered no support to Iran beyond boilerplate condemnations of the US-Israeli strikes, according to the Institute for the Study of War. (ISW)

South Sudan: 169 Killed in Village Massacre as Peace Agreement Collapses

South Sudan is sliding toward a renewed civil war. On March 2, insurgents raided a village in a remote area of the country, killing 169 people, including women and children. The killings are part of an escalating wave of violence as government forces loyal to President Salva Kiir battle armed opposition groups. (PBS NewsHour)

A UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan report, presented to the UN Human Rights Council on February 27, found that the country's political and military leaders are "systematically dismantling" the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement. The Commission warned of "escalating atrocity risks" and documented widespread and systematic attacks against civilians, including unlawful killings and disproportionate use of force. Nearly 10 million people require life-saving humanitarian assistance, while humanitarian operations have been crippled by attacks and looting. (OHCHR)

Sudan: World's Largest Humanitarian Crisis Intensifies

Sudan remains the country with the most people in need globally. According to the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP), 33.7 million people — 60% of them children — require humanitarian assistance. The civilian death toll in Sudan's war more than doubled in 2025 compared to 2024, with the UN rights chief warning of a risk of genocidal violence spreading. (ReliefWeb, France 24)

Intensified fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues in the Kordofan and Blue Nile States. Drone attacks have intensified in El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, with a medical facility struck on March 1, injuring 12 people including five medical staff. In Blue Nile State, a school was destroyed and an electricity station damaged in intensive drone attacks on the town of Kurmuk. OCHA has warned that "conditions are dire and people urgently need aid," calling for rapid and unhindered humanitarian access. (UN News)

Myanmar: Five Years of Military Rule, Conflict Without End

Five years after the military coup of February 2021, Myanmar's civil war shows no sign of abating. The UN's Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights stated on February 27 that "urgent international action is needed to put pressure on the military junta." The UN Health Cluster's February 2026 bulletin confirms that civilian deaths from airstrikes rose to their highest verified levels since 2021. The year 2025 was the deadliest on record for children since the coup, with 294 children killed. (OHCHR, The Irrawaddy)

Myanmar has also topped the global casualty list for deaths from landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXO), with 1,003 people killed by such devices in 2023 alone, a figure that has risen each year since the coup. In the most recent week, over 200 armed incidents were recorded across the country. Military airstrikes killed 17 people in Rakhine State on February 25. (Karen News, Al Jazeera)

Democratic Republic of Congo: Mass Graves Found, US Sanctions Rwanda

The humanitarian situation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo continues to deteriorate. Authorities discovered two mass graves containing 171 bodies on the outskirts of Uvira, a city seized by the M23 rebel group in December 2025. The United States has sanctioned Rwanda's defence force over its support for M23, which the US and UN experts say has grown from a few hundred members in 2021 to approximately 6,500 fighters. The Congolese army has launched a coordinated offensive against M23 in North Kivu province. (Al Jazeera, CP24)

Afghanistan: Six Months After Earthquake, Survivors Still Without Shelter

Six months after a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan on August 31, 2025, killing approximately 2,200 people in Kunar, Nangarhar, and Laghman provinces, around 90% of affected families remain in temporary and inadequate shelters. In 2026, 21.9 million people across Afghanistan require humanitarian assistance. Children lack access to formal learning spaces, and access to clean water and healthcare remains a critical challenge. The Norwegian Refugee Council has called for sustained international solidarity and financial support to enable early recovery and long-term resilience. (NRC, OCHA)

Key Statistics Table