Daily Peace and Crisis Report

Compiled Monday, June 22, 2026

Summary

See below for detail and sources.

Middle East

Lebanon — Israel–Hezbollah Conflict and US–Iran Deal

A renewed ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect on the evening of 20 June 2026, following 24 hours of the most intense fighting since Israel launched its ground offensive into southern Lebanon in early March. The Guardian reported that Israeli strikes killed at least 16 people in the Nabatieh district on Saturday 20 June alone, including a family of four killed in a residential building in the town of Barish. Lebanese civil defence said its teams had been working through the night responding to ongoing attacks. The previous day, Israeli strikes killed at least 47 people and wounded 97 across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa valley, after four Israeli soldiers including a senior officer were killed when a tank was struck by Hezbollah. Al Jazeera reported that the violence prompted Iran to delay sending its delegation to Switzerland for planned US–Iran technical talks.

The broader diplomatic context is dominated by a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) digitally signed by the United States and Iran earlier in the week, which established a 60-day framework for negotiations toward a final nuclear and security agreement. The MoU calls for a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, Israel — which is not a signatory — has continued its military operations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep Israeli forces in a “security zone” of southern Lebanon for as long as Israel’s security requires it. Hezbollah has refused to halt attacks unless Israel commits to full withdrawal from Lebanese territory. The Guardian noted that the continuing violence has fuelled scepticism that a definitive end can be found to a regional war that has killed at least 7,000 people and sent energy prices soaring.

Iran announced it had closed the Strait of Hormuz on 20 June, citing Israeli ceasefire violations and what it described as US “bad faith.” The US denied that the Strait was closed. The Guardian reported that the interim US–Iran agreement had already reopened the strait — which before the conflict carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid gas supplies — and that Iran subsequently announced it would waive planned fees for passage during the 60-day negotiation period, subject to 48 hours’ notice. US Vice President JD Vance had been prepared to travel to Switzerland for talks but the trip was abruptly cancelled. Mediators including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye agreed to convene in the Egyptian city of Alamein to discuss the path forward. Al Jazeera reported that the Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed the Burgenstock talks were postponed and that Switzerland remained ready to facilitate them.

Gaza Strip

The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip remains dire as the ceasefire announced on 10 October 2025 continues to be violated by ongoing Israeli military operations. According to the UNRWA Situation Report #226 (covering 10–16 June 2026), the Ministry of Health in Gaza recorded 72,996 Palestinians killed and 173,246 injured between 7 October 2023 and 14 June 2026. Since the ceasefire announcement on 10 October 2025, the cumulative toll stands at 1,005 fatalities and 3,157 injuries, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health as reported by OCHA.

OCHA’s Humanitarian Situation Report of 19 June 2026 describes conditions of deepening crisis. Israeli forces have continued to expand the so-called “Yellow Line” — a restriction zone introduced in October 2025 — through the placement of yellow cement blocks, triggering fresh displacement in eastern Gaza city on 12 June. OHCHR has warned that Israeli forces have killed Palestinians apparently for being too close to the line. UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher briefed the Security Council on 18 June, warning that “Gaza is being held together by humanitarian workarounds and Palestinian perseverance,” and that the situation is unsustainable. He called for funding “commensurate with the scale of this crisis” and for a halt to measures that “appear aimed at altering the demographic composition of the Occupied Palestinian Territory.”

Fuel shortages are severely hampering humanitarian operations. Between 9 and 14 June, humanitarian partners were forced to prioritise fuel for life-saving services and suspend non-critical operations. Water production has dropped to approximately 40% of pre-October 2023 levels, according to ICRC data cited by UNRWA. Over 520 endoscopic and surgical procedures are at risk of suspension unless high-level disinfectant agents urgently enter Gaza. Pest and rodent infestations are worsening amid rising temperatures, overcrowded displacement sites, and inadequate sanitation. UNRWA has recorded 392 staff killed in Gaza since the start of the war, including 310 UNRWA personnel.

West Bank

The occupied West Bank continues to experience accelerating deterioration. According to UNRWA, between 7 October 2023 and 5 June 2026, 1,103 Palestinians — at least 241 of them children — were killed in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem; 57 have been killed since the beginning of 2026. Israeli forces have continued demolition and eviction orders across the West Bank, including in the Bustan neighbourhood of Silwan and in Barta’a in Jenin governorate. OCHA reports that between 9 and 15 June, 30 people were displaced due to demolitions. Two Palestinian herding families were displaced for a second time in 2026 following escalating settler attacks near Birzeit, part of a broader trend that has displaced over 2,200 Palestinians, including more than 1,000 children, so far this year. New settlement outposts were established in Tayasir, Deir Abu Mash’al, and Al Khalayleh. Israeli settlements remain illegal under international law. UNRWA notes that Israeli authorities have not granted the Agency’s international staff visas or permits to enter the Occupied Palestinian Territory since the end of January 2025.

Eastern Europe

Russia–Ukraine Conflict

The Russia–Ukraine war continues with no ceasefire in sight as diplomatic efforts stall and military operations intensify. On 19 June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov published an essay titled “Ukraine, Europe, and Global Security,” rejecting the five-point peace conditions jointly proposed by Ukraine, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany on 7 June. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Lavrov stated that Russia cannot continue meaningful negotiations with Europe, accusing European leaders of using the premise of negotiations as cover for “geopolitical expansion.” Lavrov reiterated Russia’s maximalist demands, including Ukraine’s capitulation and security guarantees for Russian citizens’ right to use the Russian language. The Kremlin has consistently rejected compromise proposals and sought to exclude European actors from peace negotiations. ISW assessed that the Kremlin’s routine rejection of negotiation meetings signals its continued unwillingness to end the war on any terms other than Ukraine’s full capitulation.

On the night of 17–18 June, Ukraine conducted a large-scale strike against Russia, heavily targeting Moscow City. ISW reported that Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Lavrov both acknowledged the strikes and stated that Russia would continue to conduct regular strikes against Ukraine. Russian milbloggers called for greater Russian commitment to the war effort and encouraged continued Russian strikes against Ukrainian cities. ISW assessed that the Kremlin will likely use the Ukrainian strikes on Moscow City to justify repeated devastating large-scale strike packages against Ukraine. RT (Rus) reported that Russian air defences performed well against the drone campaign, with Peskov claiming air defence systems were operating effectively “despite everything.”

The human cost of the conflict continues to rise sharply. OHCHR’s May 2026 Protection of Civilians report (published 12 June) recorded at least 274 civilians killed and 1,763 injured in Ukraine in May 2026 — the highest monthly total since April 2022, representing a 93% increase compared with May 2025 and a 23% increase over April 2026. Long-range weapons (missiles and drones) were the primary cause of civilian casualties, accounting for 45% of the total. Short-range drones killed more civilians in May than in any previous month since February 2022. The vast majority of casualties occurred in government-controlled territory. OHCHR notes that its access to Russian-occupied areas is denied, meaning civilian casualties there cannot be independently verified.

On the ground, Russia Matters reports that in the four-week period from 19 May to 16 June 2026, Russian forces made a net gain of 10 square miles of Ukrainian territory according to DeepState OSINT data, compared with a net gain of 20 square miles in the previous four-week period. Russia currently controls approximately 19–20% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and parts of Donbas seized before the full-scale invasion. In the past year, Russia has made a net total gain of approximately 1,296–1,340 square miles of Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on 16 June that he wants peace talks with Putin before the beginning of winter 2026–2027 in a neutral country. DW reported on 21 June that tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have deserted front lines as Russia advances, highlighting the severe strain on Ukrainian manpower.

Africa

Sudan

Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues into its fourth year with no diplomatic breakthrough in sight. The conflict increasingly resembles a war of attrition, according to the Security Council Report June 2026 forecast, with front lines largely stabilised into a de facto territorial division but hostilities intensifying across Kordofan, Darfur, and Blue Nile State. The RSF has continued to target SAF-held areas through long-range drone attacks, including strikes against Khartoum International Airport on 4 May that disrupted all flights. The SAF has intensified drone operations against RSF-held areas in Nyala, South Darfur, targeting airports, fuel depots, and ammunition storage facilities.

The humanitarian toll is catastrophic. According to OHCHR, drone strikes alone accounted for at least 880 civilian deaths between January and April 2026, representing more than 80% of all conflict-related civilian fatalities during that period. The 14 May Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis found that approximately 19.5 million people face high levels of acute food insecurity, with around 135,000 people in catastrophic conditions. Fourteen areas across Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan remain at risk of famine. The UN’s World Food Programme has warned that 825,000 children under five are expected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2026. ReliefWeb / OCHA reports that approximately 12 million people are internally displaced or have fled to neighbouring countries.

On the diplomatic front, UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy Pekka Haavisto has continued regional consultations but prospects for a breakthrough remain remote. SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held talks with EU ambassadors in Khartoum on 15 June to discuss field conditions and ongoing negotiations. The Security Council is expected to receive a regular 120-day briefing on Sudan during June. Separately, UN News reported on 9 June that escalating attacks on bridges, roads, and other civilian infrastructure are damaging key aid routes, further constraining humanitarian access in an already severely restricted environment.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Fighting between government forces and the M23 rebel movement — backed by Rwanda — continues in eastern DRC, though front lines have partially stabilised. The Security Council Report June forecast notes that clashes and drone attacks have persisted even as the front lines of the M23 conflict have shown some stabilisation. Between November 2025 and February 2026, several human rights defenders operating in the region were reportedly targeted by members of M23 and their allies. Diplomatic efforts continue but a durable ceasefire has not been achieved.

Asia

Myanmar

Myanmar’s civil war continues with no signs of de-escalation. According to the CFR Global Conflict Tracker, Myanmar’s military government controls only 21% of the country’s territory, while rebel forces and ethnic armies hold 42%. Armed clashes continue across Sagaing, Magway, northern Shan, Kayah, Kayin, Kachin, and Rakhine. The Arakan Army now controls all but three of Rakhine State’s 17 townships. Mizzima (Myanmar opposition) reported ongoing resistance operations in Sagaing Region on 20 June, including an attack on a junta vessel, with two junta soldiers killed.

The political situation remains tense following the junta-run elections held over December 2025 and January 2026, which were widely condemned as neither free nor fair. SAC chairman Min Aung Hlaing was elected president in April 2026 and announced a 100-day peace roadmap on 21 April inviting resistance groups to enter talks by 31 July 2026. The Karen National Union, All Burma Students’ Democratic Front, and Chin National Front have all publicly rejected the offer. ReliefWeb / OCHA reports that approximately 3.7 million people are internally displaced, with projections indicating this could rise toward 5.2 million in 2026. An estimated 16 million people — nearly one in three citizens — are projected to require humanitarian assistance in 2026.

The 81st birthday of detained democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi on 19 June prompted international calls for her release. Mizzima reported that activists staged a flash protest in heavily guarded Yangon, while the UK Embassy in Yangon published a statement calling for her release. The UN Special Envoy on Myanmar also called for her release on the occasion of her birthday. China confirmed on 12 June the arrest of Min Zin, a US citizen and executive director of the think tank ISP-Myanmar, who was detained in China. CFR noted the arrest as part of broader concerns about China’s role in the conflict.

Statistics

Table 1 — Casualties (Killed / Wounded)

* OHCHR access is denied to Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine; figures for civilians in occupied territory cannot be independently verified. The vast majority (96%) of verified civilian casualties occur in Government-controlled areas.

Table 2 — Numbers (non-casualty figures)